Naughton’s First Law
Anand, 1:00pm 17 April 2006This is an article/transcript(?) of a UK Marketing Society Keynote Address (28 Feb. 2006) by John Naughton. He talks about ecological adaptation and the integration of new communication technologies into society, how business models have changed since the beginning of the Internet era, and how they will continue to transform. He points out the proliferation of new communication technologies including blogs, IPtv, and the iPod phenomenon.
He talks about media, its distribution and the evolving means for its distribution. The article is interspersed with examples of technology adoption, with a historic timeline of events and evolving technology driving the changes.
He also formulates Naughton’s First Law:
“We invariably over-estimate the short-term implications of new communications technologies, and we greviously underestimate their long term impacts”
Here is a link to the article.
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