Blogging to Peak in 2007 – Gartner must be right

December 14th, 2006

Gartner reports on the blogosphere peaking in 2007. (Yahoo News via Steve Rubel).

The reason: Most people who would ever dabble with Web journals already have. Those who love it are committed to keeping it up, while others have gotten bored and moved on, said Daryl Plummer, chief Gartner fellow.

Duncan Riley, and others don’t seem to agree. The arguments made are about India and China where Internet penetration is still in the low percentages, but growing fast.

There are 1.3 billion people in China, and only 123 million have internet access (Internet World Stats) with various reports putting the broadband number of those at between 70 and 80 million users. Less than 10% of the population of China currently has internet access
Let’s look at India. According to IWS, there are 40 million internet users in India, out of a population of 1.1 billion. I was unable to find a growth figure for India, but you’d guess from such a small base as a percentage of the population, that internet access would be growing.

However, I think Gartner might be right. Two aspects to this growth:

  • Growth is still limited to Internet Cafes, not to homes, where users are charged by the hour. Such users are generally on e-mails and chats, not on blogs which require higher time investment. Look at Internet Time Spent (if available), not penetration.
  • As Internet Time Spent moves towards healthy percentages, a new social communication medium might take over. Note that Gartner refers to Blogging, not Social Media.