Prediction markets go for Obama
Tim Finin, 11:59pm 8 April 2008
The prediction markets are bullish on Obama to win the Democratic nomination as their US presidential candidate. On Intrade, Obama is currently at at 86 compared to Clinton’s 12. Al Gore is the only other candidate in the running. The situation is similar over at the Iowa Electronic Markets.
Ebiquity Blog
April 9th, 2008 at 6:29 am
The situation is similar at the Iowa markets, but not identical. (Obama is at 81.) Earlier in the campaign, discrepancies were much greater. Such discrepancies are opportunities for arbitrage, and shouldn’t exist in an efficient market. This suggests that no one’s really trying to make money on these markets. I wonder how long that will last.