Cyberwar: can treaties avert an arms race
Tim Finin, 11:28pm 27 June 2009Should the nations of the world work toward a treaty banning or at least limiting cyberwars? If we don’t, might we fall into an arms race that could be bad for everyone? Would A war in cyberspace be less dangerous for people than traditional wars? Or maybe worse?
John Markoff and Andrew Kramer have an interesting article, U.S. and Russia Differ on a Treaty for Cyberspace in Sunday’s New York Times.
“The United States and Russia are locked in a fundamental dispute over how to counter the growing threat of cyberwar attacks that could wreak havoc on computer systems and the Internet. Both nations agree that cyberspace is an emerging battleground. … But there the agreement ends. Russia favors an international treaty along the lines of those negotiated for chemical weapons and has pushed for that approach at a series of meetings this year and in public statements by a high-ranking official.
The United States argues that a treaty is unnecessary. It instead advocates improved cooperation among international law enforcement groups. If these groups cooperate to make cyberspace more secure against criminal intrusions, their work will also make cyberspace more secure against military campaigns, American officials say. “We really believe it’s defense, defense, defense,” said the State Department official, who asked not to be identified because authorization had not been given to speak on the record. “They want to constrain offense. We needed to be able to criminalize these horrible 50,000 attacks we were getting a day.”
Russia has some specific proposals that it would like to have considered. But there are complications that arise due to cybercrime and Internet censorship.
“In a speech on March 18, Vladislav P. Sherstyuk, a deputy secretary of the Russian Security Council, a powerful body advising the president on national security, laid out what he described as Russia’s bedrock positions on disarmament in cyberspace. Russia’s proposed treaty would ban a country from secretly embedding malicious codes or circuitry that could be later activated from afar in the event of war. Other Russian proposals include the application of humanitarian laws banning attacks on noncombatants and a ban on deception in operations in cyberspace — an attempt to deal with the challenge of anonymous attacks.
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But American officials are particularly resistant to agreements that would allow governments to censor the Internet, saying they would provide cover for totalitarian regimes. These officials also worry that a treaty would be ineffective because it can be almost impossible to determine if an Internet attack originated from a government, a hacker loyal to that government, or a rogue acting independently.”
The article makes the interesting revelation that this is not the first time that cyberspace arms control have been discussed between the US and Russia.
“In 1996, at the dawn of commercial cyberspace, American and Russian military delegations met secretly in Moscow to discuss the subject. The American delegation was led by an academic military strategist, and the Russian delegation by a four-star admiral. No agreement emerged from the meeting, which has not previously been reported. Later, the Russian government repeatedly introduced resolutions calling for cyberspace disarmament treaties before the United Nations. The United States consistently opposed the idea.
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John Arquilla, an expert in military strategy at the Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey, Calif., who led the American delegation at the 1996 talks, said he had received almost no interest from within the American military after those initial meetings. “It was a great opportunity lost,” he said.

June 28th, 2009 at 9:51 am
Russia wants the treaty because of the incredible brain drain of Russian scientists (particularly of Computer Scientists), many to the US (including to UMBC!), and their inability to keep them in the country. The US doesn’t want the treaty because it’s at a distinct advantage, with the best schools and a significant portion of the world’s (good to great) Computer Scientists. Plus, even if it’s decreasing somewhat during the recession, a significant portion of the world’s highly educated continue to pour in to (and stay in) the US. Russia has lots of great scientists, but far fewer, and far fewer resources to build a massive cyber warfare unit. Russia must see themselves as particularly vulnerable on this issue, whereas this is something in which the US is still far and away the technology leader of the world (CS/IT/Cyber-whatever). Makes total sense from a political standpoint, at least in the near-term until (unless?) BRIC counters in the next ~10 years. But then, even among the BRIC group there’s significant in-fighting, e.g. historical stand-off-ish-ness between Russia and China.
Call me cynical, but I think the US is very unlikely to ceed on this issue anytime soon. And I have a very hard time believing it has anything to do with wanting to limit totalitarian regimes from censoring its citizens, unless the US sees censorship as a way to collect information the US might not otherwise gain.