I saw a link to Gartner’s Hype Cycle pages and thought I’d see what they said about the Semantic Web technologies. You’ve seen these graphs before — they chart the ups and downs of the ‘visibility’ for an idea or technology over time.
Gartner’s roller coaster ride works like this. An idea first appears after a technological trigger and begins a steep rise to the top — the “peak of inflated expectations”. Not being a hill climber, or maybe just having no brakes, it just as quickly descends into the “trough of disillusionment”. Screaming, I suppose. Sadder, but wiser, it makes a slow gentle climb up the “slope of enlightenment” to reach it’s final place in life, on the “plateau of productivity”. This plateau seems to be only about half as high as the initial peak. Eventually, the idea must disappear of the chart entirely, just as the shepherd’s sling vanished from the WMD hype chart.
The table of content appears to mention the key items on the chart. For the semantic web these are:
|On the rise||XML Topic Map|
|At the peak||Public Semantic Web|
|Sliding into the Trough||OWL, RSS|
|Climbing the slope||RDF|
|Off the Hype Cycle||Semantic Web|
Of course, you get what you pay for and this much is free. Who knows what these terms mean and on what basis these predictions are made. I was surprised to see topic maps just starting out though. Maybe it bought another ticket to ride.