Prediction market on Scooter Libby Pardon

March 10th, 2007

Tagged under for what its worth…

Traders on the intrade prediction market think it’s much more likely that I. Lewis (Scooter) Libby will receive a pardon by the end of President Bush’s term than by the end of 2007. The market for a 2007 pardon closed this week at 16 whereas the price for a 2008 pardon closed at 64.1.

Prediction market on Scooter Libby Pardon 2007 Scooter Libby Pardon by 31 Dec 2008

Of course some of the difference is that the second future includes the first. But the difference is fourfold, which is significant.